Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century | 
|  | | | Title: | Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century | | Author: | William Bonner
Addison Wiggin | | Publisher: | Wiley [Website] | | Type: | Book / Hardcover | | Publication Date: | 29 September, 2003 | | ISBN / ISBN-13: | 0471449733 / 9780471449737 | | List Price: | $27.95 | | You Save: | $9.50 | | Amazon Price: | $18.45 | |
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Product Description
"History shows that people who save and invest grow and prosper, and the others deteriorate and collapse.
As Financial Reckoning Day demonstrates, artificially low interest rates and rapid credit creation policies set by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve caused the bubble in U.S. stocks of the late '90s. . . . Now, policies being pursued at the Fed are making the bubble worse. They are changing it from a stock market bubble to a consumption and housing bubble.
And when those bubbles burst, it's going to be worse than the stock market bubble . . .
No one, of course, wants to hear it. They want the quick fix. They want to buy the stock and watch it go up twenty-five percent because that's what happened last year, and that's what they say on TV."
—Jim Rogers, author of the bestseller Adventure Capitalist
from the Foreword to Financial Reckoning Day Advanced praise from bestselling authors "An investment book that will not only enlarge your investment horizon, but also make you laugh and thoroughly entertain you for a few hours."
—Dr. Marc Faber, author of the bestseller Tomorrow's Gold "Financial Reckoning Day is . . . in the category of scintillating sex or good vision, something to be savored and enjoyed-before it is too late."
—James Dale Davidson, author of the bestseller The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual "A powerful and insightful vision . . . each paragraph stimulates a new rush of thoughts that fills in gaping holes in the investor's understanding of what has happened to their dreams . . . while prepping them to confront any new confusion that may arrive."
—Martin D. Weiss, author of the bestseller Crash Profits
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Customer Reviews:
• A Forecast To The Future. 19 December, 2008
I read this book almost three years ago so I read it again last week. They seem to have their heads pointed in the right direction. Recent events have shown that their dire predictions have come true. The fall of the stock market, the bursting of the housing market and the rise in commodity prices.
Somehow they missed out that commodities would be a quick flash in the pan and quickly fall to seek out new lows. It appears that is where we are today. Now we have the govt. trying to bailout the Big 3 auto companies after bailing out most of Wall Street.
They were correct in their prediction of inflation picking up steam which is at the point where the economy is today. With all the govt. spending, world wide, we will see that almost every govt. will have a problem with inflation. Who wins with inflation? Only those that own real assets, or those few that had the foresight to start buying gold and silver years ago when they were much cheaper than they are now.
I have a lot of admiration for the two authors. They have exposed the Bush administration for the big spenders they are in contrast to the fiscal conservatives they claimed to be when they ran for office a long 8 years ago.
I have no doubt that the Obama administration will continue down the same path of big govt. spending in an effort to stimulate the economy. This will be done even at the expense of the downfall of the value of our currency. There is no doubt in my mind that the US dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency in the world. What will replace it, is beyond my area of expertise. I do suspect that it will be a currency that is somehow linked to gold. I have a strong feeling that while the US govt. will strongly push for a common currency with Canada and Mexico, "the Amero", China and the Saudis might have other ideas. Canada just may want to join in with China and the Saudis since they have an abundance of oil and gold potentially making them a powerhouse if there is an economic shuffle of power. Deegan Peter
- Reviewed by customer ID: A25CUWEGSAC66U
• A Dim View Of The Future 25 June, 2008
Bonner and Wiggins see the world as a complicated place, where things can easily go differently than expected. One of the big problems is the human tendency to hop on the bandwagon, expecting that successful strategies will continue to work even as the chances that they will fail is increasing.
The stock market does not go up year after year, sooner or later there will be some down years. But once people get used to double digit stock returns, they expect them to continue and adjust their spending accordingly.
Stock price growth is dependent on earnings growth, which requires new products and investment. Financial engineering and cost cutting only work in the short run. Managing earnings on a quarterly basis is a sure-fire way to discourage long-term strategic moves.
Investment must come from savings, which represents foregone consumption. If the central monetary authority tries to compensate for inadequate savings by creating too much money, the currency will lose value rather than supporting the creation of wealth.
Some theorists see the Great Depression as the result of not resorting to deficit spending quickly enough. Others blame the failure to create enough money quickly enough. Neither view is sound, per Bonner and Wiggins, because once the economic situation (which started as a speculative boom) got out of hand the government was powerless to correct it.
Similarly, the Japanese government drove interest rates down to virtually zero and engaged in radical deficit spending in the 1990s. Neither tactic cured a prolonged depression in that country.
And guess what, the U.S. seems to be headed for another prolonged depression, which started with a stock market bust around the turn of the century and will go on to a housing bust, etc. The timing is apparently running a few years behind the depression in Japan because the postwar baby boom lasted longer here than there. In recognition that things often turn out differently than expected, however, we will not know for sure what is coming until it happens.
The arguments are well crafted and backed by plenty of historical examples, but the authors' fatalistic tone is a bit hard to take. It would be nice to see some suggestions as to how economic disaster could be avoided. Also, with all due respect, I never did consider gold to be an attractive long-term investment.
- Reviewed by customer ID: A162CQ2W381QYT
• It's All In Adam Smith 12 August, 2007
The authors of this book come close to identifying and pinpointing what the major cause of financial bubbles is and the disasterous impacts that affect large portions of the general population when they pop.
They correctly give the first half of the story when they quote(p.238) Adam Smith's assessment that aggregate savings is a necessary ingredient that is vitally important in order to maintain aggregate economic growth over time once an optimal capital stock has already been accumulated in the present while the prodigal and other misbehavior destroys the possibility of economic growth.Smith,however,goes on to clearly identify what he means by misbehavior.Misbehavior occurs when the private commercial banks and investment banking houses on Wall Street take the savings of the population and waste and destroy it by making loans to projectors(J M Keynes' speculators-chapter 12,General Theory,1936)and imprudent risk takers(Keynes's lender's versus borrower's risk discussion in chapter 11,GT)instead of making the loans to the " sober " people who will invest it in starting new businesses and /or expanding existing businesses.The loans can't be made to speculators who will use the loans to leverage their speculative financial behavior.The private equity firms and hedge funds are using the capital markets to distort and manipulate the assets,liabilities,and equity of American business firms and corporations in order to use them to back an ever increasing number of new financial instruments, such as derivatives,lease-backs,sub prime loan backed bonds,etc.,that will create financial returns irrespective of any real increased productivity from the firms that are taken over by the debt financed leveraged buyouts.
What, then, is Smith's solution ? It is to prevent the problem from arising in the first place!! Fix the rate of interest on bank loans at a low rate marginally above the prime rate permanently in the long run.Cut off all loans to projectors,prodigals,and imprudent risk takers.Make sure the loans get into the hands of productive people and not Wall Street speculators.See Smith(Wealth of Nations,1776,Modern Library (Cannan)edition,pp.296-340 in general and pp.339-340 specifically) .Follow the wisdom of Adam Smith and you will not have to worry about days of financial reckoning and/or surviving the next " soft" depression of the 21st century.Brussee's book on this problem would also be a good choice as he ties the problem directly to the investment banking houses on Wall Street,although he is not aware of the fact that Smith spotted this potential ,general problem well over two hundred years ago.
- Reviewed by customer ID: A1UI9T8WKJPZN5
• This Book Is A Must Read For The Serious Investor 24 August, 2008
It is said that "History Repeats Itself"; the same can be said about investments and investment cycles, as Bill Bonner explains in this book.
Simply put, this book is a must read!
- Reviewed by customer ID: A28IMT3N6P3WRH
• Read And Understand The Present 2008 Financial Disaster 02 November, 2008
My son gave me this book three years ago. I read a few chapters, and then misplaced it. I found it on the book shelf ,just after the present Market collapse. I dove into it, and it gave me a real picture of how our country got into this mess. It's a must read for understanding the present implosion of our financial system
- Reviewed by customer ID: A15OKTJXKSV5IK
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